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Why Action Is Needed Now?





Cumulative historical CO2 emissions from fossil fuels in the United States are equivalent to more than the total amount of carbon stored in U.S. forests. If current trends continue, cumulative U.S. emissions are projected to double by 2050 and increase by a factor of three to four by 2100. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report of 2007, sequestration and reduction of emissions over the next two to three decades will potentially have a substantial impact on longterm opportunities to stabilize levels of atmospheric CO2 and mitigate impacts of climate change.


Can Sequestration Control Atmospheric CO2?


Computer models of future CO2 emissions and controls on atmospheric CO2 have been developed and summarized by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP). These models indicate that projected annual global emissions during the next century would need to be reduced by more than 75 percent in order to stabilize atmospheric CO2 at about 550 ppm. This concentration would be about twice the level of CO2 in the pre-industrial atmosphere and about 45 percent higher than the atmospheric CO2 concentration in 2007. According to the CCSP, stabilizing atmospheric CO2 would "require a transformation of the global energy system, including reductions in the demand for energy…and changes in the mix of energy technology and fuels."

The CCSP models have been used to evaluate scenarios for aggressive implementation of geologic carbon sequestration. As shown in Figure 3, the estimated amount of geologic sequestration in the U.S. over the next century is projected in one model to be substantially smaller than the cumulative emission reductions anticipated from changes by all other methods. In this model, the needed amount of geologic sequestration would exceed U.S. capacity in depleted oil and gas reservoirs, implying the need to implement carbon storage in the Nation’s relatively unknown deep formations that contain saline water. In other models, predicted geologic sequestration needs are smaller as a result of different assumptions about global and national economic and technological trends.

The CCSP model results have a large amount of uncertainty. The results shown in Figure 3 do not take into account many of the uncertainties in costs and environmental risks of geologic carbon sequestration. Additional uncertainties prevent comparison of future oceanic and deliberate terrestrial sequestration. Future disturbances of vegetation and soils may add to future CO2 emissions and increase the amount of mitigation required to stabilize atmospheric CO2. For example, if a substantial portion of the carbon stored in Alaskan organic soils were converted to atmospheric CO2 as a result of climate change, the resulting emissions could offset or even exceed the likely magnitude of any deliberate U.S. terrestrial sequestration measures.

The CCSP models illustrate the widely held view that sequestration is necessary but insufficient to control atmospheric CO2. Stabilizing atmospheric CO2 is likely to require substantial changes in energy sources and use as well as carbon management. Many of these changes will likely have significant, long-lasting impacts on land, water, and ecosystem resources.